Macroeconometric Forecasting (MFx)

This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, is designed to reinforce the macroeconomic forecasting and modeling skills of participants and their use of modern econometric techniques. Lectures discuss the underlying theory and demonstrations show how to conduct empirical analyses using EViews. The course focuses on four aspects of empirical model building and forecasting: data and model properties, such as stationarity/non-stationarity and co-integration; dynamic specifications, especially the use of error correction models; model evaluation, design, and simulation; and forecast uncertainty and policy analysis.

Target Audience

All government officials are welcome to register. The course is particularly relevant for officials involved in developing forecasts that are used to design and implement macroeconomic policy.

Learning Objectives

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

Forecast time series and multiple equation models using EViews.
Assess the statistical characteristics of time series and apply appropriate methods for forecasting.
Construct a macroeconometric model using ARMA, VAR, and VECM methods.
Use a variety of statistical techniques to evaluate the performance of a forecasting model.